The Government has issued its draft National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) for consultation. This is meeting significant opposition and raising controversy, not least because the Planning Inspectorate is advising Inspectors to consider using the NPPF on a case by case basis, even before consultation ends. What’s it all about?
Centrally, it places a ‘presumption in favour of sustainable development’ – in other words, planning applications will be approved unless there is a reason not to. There are many problems with this, notably the meanings of ‘sustainable’ and ‘development’. But it does not really matter. The NPPF is a political manoeuvre.
The Government is desperate to be seem to be doing something to promote growth. The superficial rationale is that current planning arrangements lead to many refusals, and that this is hindering economic growth. Is this true? Is it reasonable?
The recent Housing Market Analysis conducted for the National Housing Federation confirms that more houses need to be built. Projecting population growth and decrease in household size, to 2020, shows that a 1% growth is needed, but current house starts are roughly half this. So why are they not being built – is it because of planning permission refusals? No. A report by the LSE shows that housing land needs can be met by infill and brownfield, without touching green field. They are not being built because developers know they will not sell, because they are too expensive. This was the other point in the NHF survey – a decrease in home ownership. Housing is just too expensive. But increasing supply will not force down prices. Neither the Government nor house owners want that.
Of course many applications are refused. Developers can make much more money from green field build than brown field – and so can agricultural land owners. But there is no point increasing developers’ profits at the cost of urban sprawl, when this will not affect the housing shortage.
The chart above (click it for a bigger version) shows inflation-adjusted GDP growth rate for the UK and the World (data from the World Bank). It shows a close correlation between the two, suggesting that UK growth reflects global changes. It also shows UK growth averaging around 3% since the 1970′s, and falling over the edge since the 2008 disaster. But planning laws were the same throughout this period. In other words planning did not hinder growth in the past, and there is no reason to think it is doing so now.
But the NPPF does allow Grant Shapps and Greg Clarke to stand up in the Commons and say they are doing something to promote growth, and deflecting blame for the lack of growth onto CPRE and the National Trust.
